Championship Promotion Race 2025/26: The Stats Behind the Contenders

Stats-driven look at the 2025/26 Championship promotion race, current form, xG analysis, play-off contenders and our prediction.

The Championship promotion race 2025/26 has reached its closing stages, and what a season it has been. Coventry City have wrapped up the title and ended a 25-year wait to return to the Premier League. 

The race for second place is going to the wire between four teams, and the play-off picture is as tight as it’s been in years. Here is a stats-driven look at who is going up, who is fighting for the final play-off spots, and which clubs the data backs to win promotion this summer.

Current Championship table and automatic promotion picture

The current Championship table tells the story of one runaway champion and a four-way scrap behind them. Coventry City clinched promotion on 17 April and sealed the title four days later, finishing on 92 points and ending a 25-year absence from the top flight. Frank Lampard's side have been the league's most consistent attacking unit all season, with USMNT striker Haji Wright leading the line.

The race for the second automatic spot is the headline going into the final day. Ipswich Town sit second and need just one win from their final two games to seal an immediate Premier League return. Middlesbrough, Millwall and Southampton are all still mathematically in the chase.

xG analysis: who is overperforming?

The xG analysis of the 2025/26 Championship reveals which sides are punching above their weight. 

Coventry's actual goals scored are broadly in line with their xG, suggesting their attacking output has been honest rather than fortunate. Ipswich are the most efficient finishers in the top six, scoring more than their xG suggests they should have under Kieran McKenna's counter-attacking style.

Southampton are the most overperforming side. The Saints have outscored their xG by around 8 goals across the season, helped by a hot run from George Hirst since January. The concern is that this kind of overperformance often regresses in the pressure-cooker of play-off football. 

The six play-off contenders assessed

The Championship play-offs 2026 will feature four teams: Ipswich, Middlesbrough, Millwall, and Southampton, plus the winner of a final-day scrap for sixth between Wrexham, Hull City, and Derby County. 

1. Ipswich are the strongest of the chasers, with McKenna's tactical record at Wembley already proven

2. Middlesbrough have the deepest squad on paper and the best individual talent, but their late-season form hasn’t been great.

3. Millwall are built around a relentless work rate, set-piece threat and strong defensive shape on one of the smaller budgets in the top four. 

4. Southampton are current the in-form team, having won eight of their last 10 games, but the xG overperformance is a potential red flag. 

5. Wrexham have completed an extraordinary rise, chasing a fourth promotion in four seasons under Phil Parkinson, and are ones to watch. 

6. Hull City are the dark horse, level on points with Wrexham and needing a final-day result to overtake them.

Our three promoted clubs' prediction

Based on form, xG, squad depth and managerial track record, our promoted clubs prediction for 2025/26 is Coventry City as already-crowned champions, Ipswich Town for the second automatic spot, and Middlesbrough through the play-offs.

Ipswich's combination of recent Premier League experience, McKenna's tactical management and in-form striker pairing should be enough to hold off the chasing pack. For the play-off final, Middlesbrough's squad depth and individual quality make them one of the strongest teams on paper, even after their late-season slump. In our opinion, they are the side most likely to handle the pressure of two-legged knockout football and a Wembley final.

From now to Wembley, every match counts

Whichever three sides go up, every fixture between now and the play-off final is fair game for a Match Bingo card. Goals from Wright, Hirst and Moore, late drama at the Riverside, and the chaos of the play-off semi-finals all bring you closer to a win.

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