World Cup 2026 upsets: the biggest shocks of the tournament

A look at the most surprising results of the 2026 World Cup and why they happened.

Every World Cup throws up a handful of results nobody saw coming, but the 2026 tournament has delivered an unusually high number of them. This piece looks at what actually counts as a World Cup upset, runs through the biggest World Cup 2026 upsets of the group stage and knockouts so far, explains why upsets happen so often at this level, and puts this year's shocks in the context of the greatest World Cup upsets in history.

What counts as a World Cup upset?

An upset is generally a result where a team ranked significantly lower, or considered a clear underdog by pundits and bookmakers alike, beats or draws with a side expected to win comfortably. At a World Cup, this usually means a smaller footballing nation getting a positive result against one of the traditional heavyweights, though it can also mean an established side crashing out to opposition that was never expected to trouble them.

Not every surprising scoreline qualifies as a genuine upset. A narrow defeat for a big nation against decent opposition is simply a close game, whereas a true upset usually involves a gap in world ranking, squad value or recent tournament pedigree that most neutral observers would have expected to tell in the bigger side's favour. The clearest upsets tend to be remembered for years, regardless of how the rest of the tournament unfolds for either side involved.

Biggest upsets of the 2026 tournament

The standout World Cup shocks 2026 has produced so far both came in the round of 32. Paraguay eliminated four-time champions Germany on penalties, the first time Germany have ever lost a World Cup shootout, in a result that stunned neutrals and Germans alike. Morocco matched that with a penalty shootout win over the Netherlands, continuing their reputation as one of the tournament's great giant killers.

The group stage produced plenty of its own surprises. Cape Verde, representing an island nation of around 500,000 people, went unbeaten through their group to become the smallest country ever to reach a World Cup knockout stage, including a goalless draw with Spain. Australia's win over pre-tournament dark horses Turkey was another of the round's bigger World Cup 2026 surprise results, and Turkey's exit was made more startling by the fact they registered over 60 shots across the group without scoring a single goal.

Why do upsets happen at World Cups?

Several factors make World Cups more prone to shocks than club football. Squads only have a short window to prepare together, meaning tactical surprises are harder to plan for and easier to spring. Occasion and pressure affect bigger nations just as much as smaller ones, sometimes more so given the weight of expectation. The expanded 48-team format used for the first time in 2026 has amplified this further, bringing more debutant nations and more group stage fixtures where a highly organised underdog can hold out for a point or nick a win on the counter attack.

Knockout football adds another layer on top of all this. A single poor performance, one refereeing decision, or one missed penalty can end a heavyweight's tournament regardless of how dominant they were across 90 minutes, which is exactly what happened to Germany against Paraguay. Club football's long league seasons tend to even out bad luck over time, but a World Cup offers no such safety net, which is precisely why shocks at this tournament carry so much more weight than an unexpected result in a domestic league fixture.

The greatest World Cup upsets in history

This year's shocks sit alongside some of the biggest World Cup upsets ever recorded, and some of the most famous World Cup giant killings 2026 will eventually be judged against, from the USA's win over England in 1950 to North Korea's defeat of Italy in 1966, Cameroon's opening win over holders Argentina in 1990, and Senegal beating holders France in 2002. What sets the 2026 tournament apart is the sheer volume of shocks in a single edition, driven by a bigger field and more fixtures than ever before.

Those historic upsets tend to share a common thread with this year's shocks: a smaller nation set up to frustrate rather than match a bigger side technically, and a moment of individual quality or luck that tips a tight game in their favour. Germany's defeat to Paraguay and the Netherlands' exit against Morocco both fit that pattern closely, which is part of why they already feel destined to be remembered alongside the classic shocks of previous tournaments.

What this tournament tells us

Taken together, this summer's results suggest the gap between football's traditional powers and the rest of the world is closing faster than many expected. Whether that trend continues into the knockout rounds, or the bigger nations reassert themselves as the tournament reaches its business end, the 2026 World Cup has already earned its place among the most unpredictable editions in the competition's history.

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