Who are the dark horses at the 2026 World Cup?

Which lesser fancied nations could go deep into the 2026 World Cup and cause major upsets?

Every World Cup has a handful of teams that arrive with modest expectations and end up making the biggest impact, and the World Cup 2026 dark horses already include several strong candidates. This piece explains what a dark horse actually is in football, looks at the surprise teams World Cup 2026 has produced so far, explores why dark horses tend to do well at World Cups, and picks out the underdog teams World Cup 2026 fans should keep watching most closely.

What is a dark horse in football?

A dark horse is a team that is not among the pre-tournament favourites but has the quality, form or fixture list to go further than expected. Unlike a simple underdog, a dark horse usually has a specific reason to believe: a settled squad, a favourable route through the draw, or a style of play that causes problems for bigger, more fancied opposition.

The distinction matters because not every surprise package is a dark horse in the truest sense. A team that scrapes a single unexpected win is simply an underdog having a good day, whereas a genuine dark horse tends to back up an early shock with a run of consistent results, showing that the initial result was no fluke.

The teams flying under the radar

Cape Verde have been the standout dark horse story of the tournament so far. An island nation of around 500,000 people, they went unbeaten through their group, including a goalless draw with Spain, to become the smallest country ever to reach a World Cup knockout stage. Morocco have continued their reputation as serial giant killers, eliminating the Netherlands on penalties in the round of 32 having already been one of the form teams of the tournament. Paraguay's win over four-time champions Germany, also on penalties, has established them as one of the most dangerous unseeded teams left in the competition. Co-hosts Canada have also impressed, beating South Africa in the round of 32 to reach the last 16 on home soil.

Why dark horses do well at World Cups

Shorter preparation time, unfamiliar opponents and the pressure that comes with being a favourite all work in a dark horse's favour. Smaller nations often set up defensively solid and difficult to break down, then look to catch bigger sides on the counter attack or in a shootout, where reputation counts for very little. The expanded 48-team format has amplified this effect in 2026, giving more nations a route into the knockout rounds and more matches in which an underdog can catch a big name cold.

There is also a psychological element that tends to favour the underdog. A dark horse has little to lose and everything to gain, which often produces fearless, high energy performances, while a favourite carrying the weight of pre-tournament expectation can freeze in exactly the moments that decide knockout football. This year's round of 32 shootouts, several of which were won by the less fancied side, fit that pattern closely.

Our picks to surprise everyone

Of the sides still in the competition, Morocco and Paraguay look best placed to continue their giant-killing form into the round of 16 and beyond, given the momentum and confidence that comes with knocking out two former World Cup winners, and both would be strong answers to anyone asking who could win World Cup 2026 from outside the traditional favourites. Cape Verde's round of 32 tie against holders Argentina will be the biggest test yet of whether their fairytale run can continue, and however that match goes, their story has already secured their place among the World Cup 2026 outsiders nobody will forget in a hurry.

What their run means for the tournament

A strong run from any of these teams would be a reminder that international football's traditional hierarchy is not as fixed as it once was. Whatever happens in the remaining rounds, this year's dark horses have already made the 2026 World Cup feel more open and unpredictable than any tournament in recent memory.

It is also worth remembering how rarely a genuine outsider goes all the way. Even famous dark horse runs, like Croatia reaching the 2018 final or Morocco's own run to the semi finals in 2022, usually end before the final itself. That does not make this year's surprise packages any less worth following. If anything, knowing how unlikely a fairytale ending is makes every extra round these teams survive feel more significant.

Cheer on the dark horses with Match Bingo

Backing an underdog is one of the great pleasures of a World Cup, and Match Bingo helps you enjoy every twist of their run live. The app turns matchday into an interactive experience so you can get more out of every fixture, favourite or underdog. Download Match Bingo and get involved with the rest of the tournament.